Concerns that artificial intelligence will trigger widespread job losses may be overstated, according to a new report from Forrester. The study estimates that AI could replace about 6% of U.S. jobs—roughly 10.4 million roles—by 2030. This is a significant figure but far from the apocalyptic scenarios often cited in public debate. The Forrester AI Job Impact Forecast, US, 2025–2030 argues that hype, layoffs driven by financial pressures, and isolated executive statements have distorted perceptions of AI’s real impact on employment.
Forrester Vice President and Principal Analyst J.P. Gownder told that AI will influence many roles, often by augmenting rather than fully replacing them. Meanwhile, the scale of displacement is more limited than feared. He cautioned against equating recent layoffs with AI-driven automation, noting that many workforce reductions occur without mature AI systems capable of actually performing the eliminated jobs.
The report also places Forrester’s forecast in context with other research. It aligns closely with projections from Goldman Sachs, which estimated potential job losses in the 6–7% range if AI adoption becomes widespread. However, Forrester revised earlier projections to reflect the growing role of generative AI and AI agents. Npw expected to account for about 50% of automation-related job losses by 2030, up from 30%.
A key indicator to watch, according to Forrester, is U.S. productivity growth. Sustained, economy-wide productivity gains—rather than isolated layoffs—would signal that AI is truly enabling fewer workers to produce more output.
Key takeaways for business and policy leaders:
- AI is projected to replace about 6% of U.S. jobs by 2030, not the majority of the workforce
- Many layoffs attributed to AI are driving by financial decisions, not deployed automation
- Generative AI and agents will play a larger role in future job displacement
- Productivity growth is the most reliable signal of AI’s real labor impact
Forrester concludes that while AI-driven disruption is real, premature automation strategies and fear-based narratives risk harming morale and long-term business performance more than the technology itself.
Source:
https://www.zdnet.com/article/ai-job-anxiety-labor-indicator-forrester/
